Decision Making and Uncertainty: Bayesian Analysis of Potential Flood Heights

Decision making and uncertainty: Bayesian analysis of potential flood heights

This paper provides a case study of a method to estimate the value of additional information, before its acquisition, to aid decision making in the face of uncertainty. The approach employs conditional simulation in a Monte Carlo framework to conduct a Bayesian assessment of the value of information in an explicitly spatial setting. This paper demonstrates the procedure as applied by a hypothet...

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision Making with Uncertainty

In this paper we discuss decision making based on incomplete knowledge. Asthe results of our decisions have always some uncertainties in these cases, we developeda method to measure the advantages brought by those possible solutions of our problem,which makes our decision making problem easier. Our proposal is entirely formulizedwithin the so called classical two valued logic, so it has a solid...

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

Decision making with uncertainty